How Brexit Affected SNP GE Vote Share
From the archive — published in 2017 on the original Chokkablog, kept as it was written.
A very quick and dirty blog, but I saw this analysis today [A Tale of Two Referendums - the 2017 Election in Scotland] and I couldn't keep my hands off it.The analysis looks at four cohorts based on indyref and EUref vote (Yes/Remain, Yes/Leave, No/Remain and No/Leave) and tracks how General Election voting moved between 2015 and 2017 within those cohorts. I recommend reading it.
The analysis is excellent and clear but the "visual thinker" in me wanted to see the four cohorts shown in correct relative scale so I did this crude bit of image manipulation (and a few simple sums based on SNP share of those cohorts in 2015 and 2017).
- The SNP lost share in all cohorts
- The SNP saw a 2% total vote share decline among Yes/Remain voters (who largely switched to Labour)
- The biggest source of loss for the SNP was Yes/Leave voters who were responsible for a 5% total vote share decline for them
- The SNP of course hoped to pick up No/Remain voters - but in fact they lost another 1% total vote share through this cohort, with those No voters who'd lent their votes to the SNP in 2015 largely switching to the Lib Dems
- No/Leave voters largely switched to the Conservatives - and the few No/Leave voters who had lent their votes to the SNP in 2015 largely switched to Labour, losing the SNP another 1% of total vote share.